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Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

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Disclosure

18+ only. Event contracts carry significant risk and are not suitable for everyone, you can lose the entire amount you commit. Not available in all jurisdictions; restrictions and eligibility requirements apply.

Chance Over Time
Outcome
  • December 31, 202736%Yes 36¢No 65¢
  • June 30, 202732%Yes 32¢No 69¢
  • March 31, 202715%Yes 15¢No 85¢
  • December 315%Yes 5¢No 96¢
  • April 300%Yes 0¢No 100¢
$8.5M vol

Market Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.

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