KalshiScience and Technology

Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157)?

intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma

Ends Apr 1, 2027

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Disclosure

18+ only. Event contracts carry significant risk and are not suitable for everyone, you can lose the entire amount you commit. Not available in all jurisdictions; restrictions and eligibility requirements apply.

Probability

Before Apr 1, 20270 VOL.
Yes 0%No 100%
0¢
Before Jul 1, 20270 VOL.
Yes 0%No 100%
0¢
Before Oct 1, 2027381.1 VOL.
Yes 68%No 32%
68¢
Before Jan 1, 2028312 VOL.
Yes 84%No 16%
84¢
Before Jul 1, 20280 VOL.
Yes 0%No 100%
0¢

Rules Summary

If the FDA approves intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma for marketing before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Timeline and Payout

Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 10:00 PM
Closes: Apr 1, 2027, 3:59 AM
Pays out: 0.5 hours after close

Series KXFDAAPPROVE · Event KXFDAAPPROVE-V940 · Market KXFDAAPPROVE-V940-27APR01