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KalshiElections

Will the Citrini scenario happen?

Before July 2028

Ends Jul 1, 2028

Bet Now
Disclosure

18+ only. Event contracts carry significant risk and are not suitable for everyone, you can lose the entire amount you commit. Not available in all jurisdictions; restrictions and eligibility requirements apply.

  • Yes25.9M VOL.

Rules Summary

If at least 3 of: unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS) S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50% CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release occur in any release published after Issuance and before July 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Timeline and Payout

Opened
Feb 25, 2026, 3:00 PM
Closes
Jul 1, 2028, 2:00 PM
Pays out
0.5 hours after close

Series KXCITRINI · Event KXCITRINI-28JUL01 · Market KXCITRINI-28JUL01