KalshiPolitics
Will CMS announce a major Medicaid payment deferral against another state?
Before Jan 1, 2027
Ends Sep 1, 2026
Bet NowDisclosure
18+ only. Event contracts carry significant risk and are not suitable for everyone, you can lose the entire amount you commit. Not available in all jurisdictions; restrictions and eligibility requirements apply.
Probability
- Before Sep 1, 202653 VOL.Yes 3%No 97%3¢
- Before Jan 1, 2027547.9 VOL.Yes 32%No 68%32¢
Rules Summary
If the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) or the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) announces a formal deferral of at least $50 million in federal Medicaid matching funds for claims submitted by a single U.S. state other than California or Minnesota, based on fraud, waste, abuse, or program-integrity concerns before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Timeline and Payout
- Opened
- Jul 22, 2026, 3:22 PM
- Closes
- Sep 1, 2026, 3:59 AM
- Pays out
- 0.5 hours after close
Series KXCMSDEFERRAL · Event KXCMSDEFERRAL-26JUL · Market KXCMSDEFERRAL-26JUL-26SEP01