KalshiElections

Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run?

Before Nov 7, 2028

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Disclosure

18+ only. Event contracts carry significant risk and are not suitable for everyone, you can lose the entire amount you commit. Not available in all jurisdictions; restrictions and eligibility requirements apply.

Probability

Gavin Newsom16.9K VOL.
Yes 29%No 71%
29¢
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez3.3K VOL.
Yes 4%No 96%
4¢
Pete Buttigieg11.4K VOL.
Yes 22%No 78%
22¢
Wes Moore4.6K VOL.
Yes 3%No 98%
3¢
Josh Shapiro7.9K VOL.
Yes 4%No 96%
4¢

Rules Summary

If Gavin Newsom is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 7, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Timeline and Payout

Opened: Sep 16, 2025, 9:00 PM
Closes: Nov 7, 2028, 4:59 AM
Pays out: 0.5 hours after close

Series KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD · Event KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV07 · Market KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV07-GNEW