KalshiEconomics
When will the next US recession start?
Next recession
Ends Dec 31, 2026
Bet NowDisclosure
18+ only. Event contracts carry significant risk and are not suitable for everyone, you can lose the entire amount you commit. Not available in all jurisdictions; restrictions and eligibility requirements apply.
- Q4 202445.3K VOL.Yes 1%No 99%1¢
- Q1 202575.6K VOL.Yes 0%No 100%0¢
- Q2 2025130.7K VOL.Yes 0%No 100%0¢
- Q3 202582.7K VOL.Yes 1%No 99%1¢
- Q4 202596.8K VOL.Yes 0%No 100%0¢
Rules Summary
If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q4 2024, then the market resolves to Yes.
Timeline and Payout
- Opened
- Mar 19, 2025, 2:00 PM
- Closes
- Dec 31, 2026, 3:00 PM
- Pays out
- 0.5 hours after close
Series KXNBERRECESSQ · Event KXNBERRECESSQ · Market KXNBERRECESSQ-Q4-2024