When will any company achieve AGI?

Disclosure

18+ only. Event contracts carry significant risk and are not suitable for everyone, you can lose the entire amount you commit. Not available in all jurisdictions; restrictions and eligibility requirements apply.

Chance Over Time

OutcomeChanceTrade

Before Jan 1, 203182%Yes 82¢No 18¢
Before Jul 1, 202879%Yes 79¢No 21¢
Before Jan 1, 202979%Yes 79¢No 21¢
Before Jan 1, 203079%Yes 79¢No 21¢
Before Oct 1, 202876%Yes 76¢No 24¢

$207.4K vol

Rules Summary

If any company (public or private) officially announces that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) after market issuance and before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.