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KalshiElections

Pennsylvania's 4th District margin of victory

Pennsylvania's 4th District

Ends Nov 3, 2027

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Disclosure

18+ only. Event contracts carry significant risk and are not suitable for everyone, you can lose the entire amount you commit. Not available in all jurisdictions; restrictions and eligibility requirements apply.

Probability

  • Democrats, 12+ pts739 VOL.
    Yes 87%No 13%
    87¢
  • Democrats, 15+ pts180 VOL.
    Yes 80%No 20%
    80¢
  • Democrats, 18+ pts0 VOL.
    Yes 0%No 100%
    0¢
  • Democrats, 21+ pts440 VOL.
    Yes 59%No 41%
    59¢
  • Democrats, 24+ pts74 VOL.
    Yes 49%No 51%
    49¢

Rules Summary

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Pennsylvania's 4th District by 12 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

Timeline and Payout

Opened
May 5, 2026, 8:25 PM
Closes
Nov 3, 2027, 3:00 PM
Pays out
0.5 hours after close

Series KXMIDTERMMOV · Event KXMIDTERMMOV-PA04D · Market KXMIDTERMMOV-PA04D-P12