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KalshiElections

Next government of the United Kingdom?

Before Jan 1, 2030

Ends Jan 1, 2030

Bet Now

Probability

  • Reform UK majority30.5 VOL.
    Yes 13%No 87%
    13¢
  • Reform UK minority17.1 VOL.
    Yes 11%No 89%
    11¢
  • Reform UK minority + Conservative support12.6 VOL.
    Yes 15%No 85%
    15¢
  • Reform UK and Conservative coalition78.6 VOL.
    Yes 3%No 97%
    3¢
  • Labour majority1.4K VOL.
    Yes 10%No 90%
    10¢

Rules Summary

If Reform UK, with Reform UK holding a majority of seats in the House of Commons exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

Timeline and Payout

Opened
May 21, 2026, 2:00 PM
Closes
Jan 1, 2030, 3:00 PM
Pays out
0.5 hours after close

Series KXUKCOALITION · Event KXUKCOALITION-30JAN01 · Market KXUKCOALITION-30JAN01-REFMAJ