Next government of the United Kingdom?

Disclosure

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Chance Over Time

OutcomeChanceTrade

Reform UK majority13%Yes 13¢No 87¢
Reform UK minority11%Yes 11¢No 89¢
Labour majority11%Yes 11¢No 89¢
Labour, Liberal Democrat, and Green coalition11%Yes 11¢No 89¢
Labour minority + Green support9%Yes 9¢No 91¢

$3.3K vol

Rules Summary

If Reform UK, with Reform UK holding a majority of seats in the House of Commons exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.