KalshiClimate and Weather

Lowest daily Arctic sea ice extent in summer 2026

Dec 19, 2025 to Oct 1, 2026

Ends Oct 2, 2026

Disclosure

18+ only. Event contracts carry significant risk and are not suitable for everyone, you can lose the entire amount you commit. Not available in all jurisdictions; restrictions and eligibility requirements apply.

Below 4.8 million sq km386.9 VOL.
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Below 4.6 million sq km340 VOL.
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Below 4.5 million sq km171.2 VOL.
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Below 4.4 million sq km204 VOL.
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Below 4.3 million sq km675.8 VOL.
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Rules Summary

If the National Snow & Ice Data Center records a day between December 19, 2025 and October 01, 2026 where the extent of arctic sea ice is below 4.8 million square kilometers, then the market resolves to Yes.

Timeline and Payout

Opened: Jul 25, 2026, 8:00 PM
Closes: Oct 2, 2026, 3:59 AM
Pays out: 1 hour after close

Series KXARCTICICEMIN · Event KXARCTICICEMIN-26OCT01 · Market KXARCTICICEMIN-26OCT01-T4.8