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KalshiElections

Iowa Senate margin of victory

On November 3, 2026

Ends Nov 3, 2027

Bet Now
Disclosure

18+ only. Event contracts carry significant risk and are not suitable for everyone, you can lose the entire amount you commit. Not available in all jurisdictions; restrictions and eligibility requirements apply.

Probability

  • Republicans, 2+ pts1.7K VOL.
    Yes 54%No 46%
    54¢
  • Republicans, 4+ pts2K VOL.
    Yes 35%No 65%
    35¢
  • Republicans, 6+ pts1.3K VOL.
    Yes 28%No 72%
    28¢
  • Republicans, 8+ pts515 VOL.
    Yes 14%No 86%
    14¢
  • Republicans, 10+ pts993.5 VOL.
    Yes 16%No 84%
    16¢

Rules Summary

If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Iowa by 2 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

Timeline and Payout

Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 1:02 AM
Closes
Nov 3, 2027, 3:00 PM
Pays out
0.5 hours after close

Series KXMIDTERMMOV · Event KXMIDTERMMOV-IASENR · Market KXMIDTERMMOV-IASENR-P2