KalshiEconomics

Illinois pension debt in 2026?

Fiscal Year 2026

Ends Nov 1, 2026

Disclosure

18+ only. Event contracts carry significant risk and are not suitable for everyone, you can lose the entire amount you commit. Not available in all jurisdictions; restrictions and eligibility requirements apply.

Probability

Above $140 billion25 VOL.
Yes 93%No 7%
93¢
Above $145 billion42.1 VOL.
Yes 82%No 18%
82¢
Above $150 billion568.7 VOL.
Yes 13%No 87%
13¢
Above $155 billion2.1K VOL.
Yes 4%No 96%
4¢
Above $160 billion1.2K VOL.
Yes 8%No 92%
8¢

Rules Summary

If the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 is above $140 billion, as reported by the Illinois Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability, then the market resolves to Yes.

Timeline and Payout

Opened: May 13, 2026, 5:00 PM
Closes: Nov 1, 2026, 1:29 PM
Pays out: 0.5 hours after close

Series KXILPENDEBT · Event KXILPENDEBT-26NOV01 · Market KXILPENDEBT-26NOV01-T140