KalshiPolitics
How much will ACA Marketplace enrollment decline in 2027?
from February 2026 to February 2027
Ends Jul 1, 2027
Bet NowDisclosure
18+ only. Event contracts carry significant risk and are not suitable for everyone, you can lose the entire amount you commit. Not available in all jurisdictions; restrictions and eligibility requirements apply.
Probability
- Above 5%18 VOL.Yes 95%No 5%95¢
- Above 10%540 VOL.Yes 89%No 11%89¢
- Above 15%232.3 VOL.Yes 65%No 35%65¢
- Above 20%288.5 VOL.Yes 29%No 71%29¢
- Above 25%50 VOL.Yes 18%No 82%18¢
Rules Summary
If the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment is above 5% from February 2026 to February 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Timeline and Payout
- Opened
- Jul 14, 2026, 12:00 AM
- Closes
- Jul 1, 2027, 1:59 PM
- Pays out
- 0.5 hours after close
Series KXACAENROLLMENT · Event KXACAENROLLMENT-27FEB28 · Market KXACAENROLLMENT-27FEB28-A5