KalshiElections
How many independents will be elected to Congress in the midterms?
in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress
Ends Jan 3, 2027
Bet NowDisclosure
18+ only. Event contracts carry significant risk and are not suitable for everyone, you can lose the entire amount you commit. Not available in all jurisdictions; restrictions and eligibility requirements apply.
Probability
- At least 1100 VOL.Yes 37%No 63%37¢
- At least 20 VOL.Yes 0%No 100%0¢
- At least 31.1K VOL.Yes 6%No 94%6¢
- At least 40 VOL.Yes 4%No 96%4¢
Rules Summary
If the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats is at least 1 in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes.
Timeline and Payout
- Opened
- Aug 12, 2026, 4:00 PM
- Closes
- Jan 3, 2027, 2:59 PM
- Pays out
- 0.5 hours after close
Series KXINDCOUNT · Event KXINDCOUNT-27JAN03 · Market KXINDCOUNT-27JAN03-AL1