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KalshiElections

Florida Senate margin of victory

On November 3, 2026

Ends Nov 3, 2027

Bet Now
Disclosure

18+ only. Event contracts carry significant risk and are not suitable for everyone, you can lose the entire amount you commit. Not available in all jurisdictions; restrictions and eligibility requirements apply.

Probability

  • Republicans, 2+ pts1.1K VOL.
    Yes 88%No 12%
    88¢
  • Republicans, 4+ pts2.7K VOL.
    Yes 81%No 19%
    81¢
  • Republicans, 6+ pts1.2K VOL.
    Yes 73%No 27%
    73¢
  • Republicans, 8+ pts2.8K VOL.
    Yes 61%No 39%
    61¢
  • Republicans, 10+ pts1.9K VOL.
    Yes 45%No 55%
    45¢

Rules Summary

If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Florida by 2 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

Timeline and Payout

Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 1:02 AM
Closes
Nov 3, 2027, 3:00 PM
Pays out
0.5 hours after close

Series KXMIDTERMMOV · Event KXMIDTERMMOV-FLSENR · Market KXMIDTERMMOV-FLSENR-P2