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KalshiElections

Arkansas Senate margin of victory

On November 3, 2026

Ends Nov 3, 2027

Bet Now
Disclosure

18+ only. Event contracts carry significant risk and are not suitable for everyone, you can lose the entire amount you commit. Not available in all jurisdictions; restrictions and eligibility requirements apply.

Probability

  • Republicans, 14+ pts447.6 VOL.
    Yes 74%No 26%
    74¢
  • Republicans, 16+ pts548 VOL.
    Yes 62%No 38%
    62¢
  • Republicans, 18+ pts756.5 VOL.
    Yes 57%No 43%
    57¢
  • Republicans, 20+ pts0 VOL.
    Yes 0%No 100%
    0¢
  • Republicans, 22+ pts0 VOL.
    Yes 0%No 100%
    0¢

Rules Summary

If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Arkansas by 14 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

Timeline and Payout

Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 1:02 AM
Closes
Nov 3, 2027, 3:00 PM
Pays out
0.5 hours after close

Series KXMIDTERMMOV · Event KXMIDTERMMOV-ARSENR · Market KXMIDTERMMOV-ARSENR-P14