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KalshiElections

Arkansas's 4th District margin of victory

Arkansas's 4th District

Ends Nov 3, 2027

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Disclosure

18+ only. Event contracts carry significant risk and are not suitable for everyone, you can lose the entire amount you commit. Not available in all jurisdictions; restrictions and eligibility requirements apply.

Probability

  • Republicans, 24+ pts110.3 VOL.
    Yes 90%No 10%
    90¢
  • Republicans, 27+ pts239.2 VOL.
    Yes 85%No 15%
    85¢
  • Republicans, 30+ pts500.4 VOL.
    Yes 84%No 16%
    84¢
  • Republicans, 33+ pts569.8 VOL.
    Yes 70%No 30%
    70¢
  • Republicans, 36+ pts513.8 VOL.
    Yes 59%No 41%
    59¢

Rules Summary

If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Arkansas's 4th District by 24 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

Timeline and Payout

Opened
May 5, 2026, 8:21 PM
Closes
Nov 3, 2027, 3:00 PM
Pays out
0.5 hours after close

Series KXMIDTERMMOV · Event KXMIDTERMMOV-AR04R · Market KXMIDTERMMOV-AR04R-P24