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KalshiElections

Arkansas's 3rd District margin of victory

Arkansas's 3rd District

Ends Nov 3, 2027

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Disclosure

18+ only. Event contracts carry significant risk and are not suitable for everyone, you can lose the entire amount you commit. Not available in all jurisdictions; restrictions and eligibility requirements apply.

Probability

  • Republicans, 10+ pts1.1K VOL.
    Yes 93%No 7%
    93¢
  • Republicans, 13+ pts1K VOL.
    Yes 92%No 8%
    92¢
  • Republicans, 16+ pts1.7K VOL.
    Yes 85%No 15%
    85¢
  • Republicans, 19+ pts5.2K VOL.
    Yes 78%No 22%
    78¢
  • Republicans, 22+ pts3.4K VOL.
    Yes 65%No 35%
    65¢

Rules Summary

If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Arkansas's 3rd District by 10 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

Timeline and Payout

Opened
May 5, 2026, 8:21 PM
Closes
Nov 3, 2027, 3:00 PM
Pays out
0.5 hours after close

Series KXMIDTERMMOV · Event KXMIDTERMMOV-AR03R · Market KXMIDTERMMOV-AR03R-P10