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KalshiElections

Arkansas's 1st District margin of victory

Arkansas's 1st District

Ends Nov 3, 2027

Bet Now
Disclosure

18+ only. Event contracts carry significant risk and are not suitable for everyone, you can lose the entire amount you commit. Not available in all jurisdictions; restrictions and eligibility requirements apply.

Probability

  • Republicans, 27+ pts0 VOL.
    Yes 0%No 100%
    0¢
  • Republicans, 30+ pts230.3 VOL.
    Yes 88%No 12%
    88¢
  • Republicans, 33+ pts254.1 VOL.
    Yes 78%No 22%
    78¢
  • Republicans, 36+ pts383.6 VOL.
    Yes 72%No 28%
    72¢
  • Republicans, 39+ pts350 VOL.
    Yes 56%No 44%
    56¢

Rules Summary

If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Arkansas's 1st District by 27 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

Timeline and Payout

Opened
May 5, 2026, 8:21 PM
Closes
Nov 3, 2027, 3:00 PM
Pays out
0.5 hours after close

Series KXMIDTERMMOV · Event KXMIDTERMMOV-AR01R · Market KXMIDTERMMOV-AR01R-P27