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KalshiElections

Arizona's 1st District margin of victory

Arizona's 1st District

Ends Nov 3, 2027

Bet Now
Disclosure

18+ only. Event contracts carry significant risk and are not suitable for everyone, you can lose the entire amount you commit. Not available in all jurisdictions; restrictions and eligibility requirements apply.

Probability

  • Democrats, 2+ pts2.5K VOL.
    Yes 66%No 34%
    66¢
  • Democrats, 5+ pts3.2K VOL.
    Yes 52%No 48%
    52¢
  • Democrats, 8+ pts2.6K VOL.
    Yes 39%No 61%
    39¢
  • Democrats, 11+ pts56 VOL.
    Yes 24%No 76%
    24¢
  • Democrats, 14+ pts47 VOL.
    Yes 15%No 85%
    15¢

Rules Summary

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Arizona's 1st District by 2 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

Timeline and Payout

Opened
May 5, 2026, 8:20 PM
Closes
Nov 3, 2027, 3:00 PM
Pays out
0.5 hours after close

Series KXMIDTERMMOV · Event KXMIDTERMMOV-AZ01D · Market KXMIDTERMMOV-AZ01D-P2