KalshiElections
Arizona's 1st District margin of victory
Arizona's 1st District
Ends Nov 3, 2027
Bet NowDisclosure
18+ only. Event contracts carry significant risk and are not suitable for everyone, you can lose the entire amount you commit. Not available in all jurisdictions; restrictions and eligibility requirements apply.
Probability
- Democrats, 2+ pts2.5K VOL.Yes 66%No 34%66¢
- Democrats, 5+ pts3.2K VOL.Yes 52%No 48%52¢
- Democrats, 8+ pts2.6K VOL.Yes 39%No 61%39¢
- Democrats, 11+ pts56 VOL.Yes 24%No 76%24¢
- Democrats, 14+ pts47 VOL.Yes 15%No 85%15¢
Rules Summary
If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Arizona's 1st District by 2 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
Timeline and Payout
- Opened
- May 5, 2026, 8:20 PM
- Closes
- Nov 3, 2027, 3:00 PM
- Pays out
- 0.5 hours after close
Series KXMIDTERMMOV · Event KXMIDTERMMOV-AZ01D · Market KXMIDTERMMOV-AZ01D-P2

