KalshiElections

2028 popular vote margin of victory?

Nov 7, 2028

Ends May 6, 2029

Disclosure

18+ only. Event contracts carry significant risk and are not suitable for everyone, you can lose the entire amount you commit. Not available in all jurisdictions; restrictions and eligibility requirements apply.

Probability

Democratic by 9.0% or more6.6K VOL.
Yes 22%No 78%
22¢
Democratic by 8.0% to 8.99%6.4K VOL.
Yes 9%No 91%
9¢
Democratic by 7.0% to 7.99%3.4K VOL.
Yes 8%No 92%
8¢
Democratic by 6.0% to 6.99%2.6K VOL.
Yes 5%No 95%
5¢
Democratic by 5.0% to 5.99%4.8K VOL.
Yes 6%No 94%
6¢

Rules Summary

If a member of the Democratic Party wins the popular vote in 2028 by a margin of between 9.00-100.00%, then the market resolves to Yes.

Timeline and Payout

Opened: May 20, 2026, 6:00 PM
Closes: May 6, 2029, 3:00 PM
Pays out: 0 hours after close

Series POPVOTEMOV · Event POPVOTEMOV-28NOV07 · Market POPVOTEMOV-28NOV07-DEM900T10000