KalshiPolitics
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
At the release of the national House popular vote data
Ends Nov 3, 2027
Bet NowDisclosure
18+ only. Event contracts carry significant risk and are not suitable for everyone, you can lose the entire amount you commit. Not available in all jurisdictions; restrictions and eligibility requirements apply.
Probability
- Republicans win512.4K VOL.Yes 9%No 91%9¢
- Democrats, 0 to 2%219.6K VOL.Yes 4%No 96%4¢
- Democrats, 2 to 4%136.6K VOL.Yes 5%No 95%5¢
- Democrats, 4 to 6%39.4K VOL.Yes 10%No 90%10¢
- Democrats, 6 to 8%84.7K VOL.Yes 23%No 77%23¢
Rules Summary
If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between -100 and 0 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Timeline and Payout
- Opened
- Feb 4, 2026, 3:00 PM
- Closes
- Nov 3, 2027, 1:59 PM
- Pays out
- 0.5 hours after close
Series KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN · Event KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03 · Market KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B50