ตัวบ่งชี้ MACD คืออะไร? คู่มือเกี่ยวกับการเคลื่อนที่เฉลี่ยและความแตกต่างในคริปโต

ค่าเฉลี่ยเคลื่อนที่คอนเวอร์เจนซ์ไดเวอร์เจนซ์ (MACD) เป็นหนึ่งในตัวชี้วัดโมเมนตัมที่ใช้กันอย่างแพร่หลายในตลาดการซื้อขาย มันช่วยให้เทรดเดอร์ระบุทิศทางแนวโน้ม วัดความแข็งแกร่งของโมเมนตัม และหาจุดเข้าหรือออกที่มีศักยภาพ ในบทความนี้ เราจะอธิบายว่า MACD คืออะไร ทำงานอย่างไร และเทรดเดอร์คริปโตตีความสัญญาณของมันอย่างไรเพื่อปรับปรุงการตัดสินใจ

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Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Overview of the MACD

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) was developed by Gerald Appel in the late 1970s. It’s a trend-following momentum indicator that compares short-term and long-term price movements using exponential moving averages (EMAs).

By tracking the relationship between these moving averages, the MACD shows when momentum is strengthening, weakening, or reversing.

Unlike leading indicators that attempt to predict future moves, the MACD is a lagging indicator - it reacts to price changes that have already occurred. This makes it especially useful for confirming trends or identifying divergences between price and momentum.

What Does It Look Like?

The MACD consists of three key components plotted on a chart below the asset’s price:

1. MACD Line - The difference between a short-term EMA (commonly 12 periods) and a longer-term EMA (commonly 26 periods).
2. Signal Line - A 9-period EMA of the MACD line, used to generate buy or sell triggers.
3. Histogram - A bar chart showing the distance between the MACD line and the signal line.

All three components fluctuate above and below a zero line, which acts as the midpoint between bullish and bearish momentum.

Signal Criteria and Formula

The MACD is calculated in three steps:

Step 1 - MACD Line
MACD Line = EMA(12) - EMA(26)

Step 2 - Signal Line
Signal Line = EMA(9) of the MACD Line

Step 3 - Histogram
Histogram = MACD Line - Signal Line

Most charting platforms use the standard MACD (12, 26, 9) settings by default. However, traders can adjust these periods to make the indicator more or less sensitive to price changes.

How to Interpret the MACD

1. Signal Line Crossovers

   • Bullish crossover - MACD line moves above the signal line, suggesting upward momentum and a potential buy signal.
   • Bearish crossover - MACD line moves below the signal line, suggesting downward momentum and a potential sell signal.

2. Zero Line Crossovers

   • Above zero - The short-term EMA is higher than the long-term EMA, indicating bullish momentum.
   • Below zero - The short-term EMA is lower than the long-term EMA, indicating bearish momentum.

3. Divergences

   • Bullish divergence - Price makes lower lows while the MACD makes higher lows. This can signal that selling pressure is weakening and a reversal may follow.
   • Bearish divergence - Price makes higher highs while the MACD makes lower highs. This can signal that buying pressure is weakening and a downward reversal may follow.

Example in Action

Imagine Bitcoin is trading in a steady uptrend. The MACD line crosses above the signal line and both are above the zero line. At the same time, the histogram turns positive, showing growing momentum.

A trader might see this as confirmation to stay in a long position or enter a new one. Conversely, if the MACD line drops below the signal line while still above zero, it could indicate weakening momentum - a cue to tighten stops or take profits.

Limitations of the MACD

While the MACD is powerful, it’s not foolproof:

• It can produce false signals in sideways or choppy markets.
• Divergences don’t always lead to reversals.
• Relying on the MACD alone increases the risk of mistimed entries or exits.

For this reason, many traders combine the MACD with other tools like the Relative Strength Index (RSI), trendlines, or support/resistance levels.

Conclusion

The MACD is a versatile indicator that helps traders track trend direction and momentum shifts. By learning to read its crossovers, zero line movements, and divergences, traders can better time entries and exits.

It’s best used as part of a broader trading strategy that includes confirmation signals and risk management.

Next Steps

• Learn about the Relative Strength Index (RSI), another momentum indicator that pairs well with MACD.
• Explore candlestick reversal patterns like the Morning Star or Bullish Engulfing to combine with MACD crossovers.
• Practice identifying MACD signals on live crypto charts with free charting tools to sharpen your timing.

By integrating the MACD indicator into a broader trading strategy that includes confirmation signals and risk management, traders can improve their ability to time entries and exits and make more confident decisions.

Explore Related Articles:

• A Beginner’s Guide to Candlestick Charts
• Rising Bullish Hammer Candlestick Pattern Explained
• Shooting Star (Falling Hammer) Candlestick Pattern Explained
• Bullish Engulfing: A Signal That Buyers Are Taking Over
• Bearish Engulfing: A Signal That Sellers Are Taking Control
• Morning Star Pattern: A Signal That Buyers Are Stepping In
• Evening Star: A Signal That Sellers Are Stepping In
• Golden Cross: A Signal That Bullish Momentum Is Building
• Bearish (Death) Cross: A Signal That Momentum May Be Turning Against the Market
• Pi Cycle Top: A Signal That Bitcoin May Be Peaking
• Relative Strength Index (RSI): Spotting Overbought and Oversold Markets
• Stochastic Oscillator: Measuring Momentum and Spotting Reversals

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