When will the Hodge Conjecture be resolved?

Disclosure

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Chance Over Time

OutcomeChanceTrade

Before 202976%Yes 76¢No 24¢
Before 203074%Yes 74¢No 26¢
Before 203274%Yes 74¢No 26¢
Before 203173%Yes 73¢No 27¢
Before 202846%Yes 46¢No 54¢

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Rules Summary

If Hodge Conjecture in its official Clay Mathematics Institute formulation is resolved before Jan 1, 2027 under the Payout Criterion and that resolution has not been retracted, withdrawn, repudiated, or rescinded prior to the Expiration time, then the market resolves to Yes.