MacAskill–Moll AI growth challenge · Who will win?

Disclosure

18+ only. Event contracts carry significant risk and are not suitable for everyone, you can lose the entire amount you commit. Not available in all jurisdictions; restrictions and eligibility requirements apply.

Chance Over Time

OutcomeChanceTrade

Below 15%80%Yes 80¢No 20¢
At least 15%20%Yes 20¢No 80¢

$57.7 vol

Rules Summary

If the highest percentage increase in U.S. real GDP per capita over its previous peak for Q3 2026 through Q4 2033 is at least 15%, then the market resolves to Yes.